ADP IS A MARKET FACT, NOT OUR MODEL — our read on each move is the part that is placeholder
Risers and fallers

Where the room changed its mind

ADP is the only number here we did not compute. It is what fourteen-team rooms actually did over the last two weeks — the cleanest surface to ship first, and the one nothing in the model has to be right for.

7 days14 daysSince Aug 1All preseason
ALLQBRBWRTE

Risers

ADP MOVE, 14 DAYS  ·  OUR READ
WRTee HigginsCIN44.131.8+12.3WE WERE EARLY
TEGeorge KittleSF112.096.4+15.6WE WERE EARLY
RBOmarion HamptonLAC24.918.2+6.7FADE THE RISE
QBJaxson DartNYG168.4141.0+27.4NOISE
WRZay FlowersBAL45.038.6+6.4WE WERE EARLY

Fallers

ADP MOVE, 14 DAYS  ·  OUR READ
WRNico CollinsHOU19.425.8−6.4BUY THE DIP
TEBrock BowersLV16.122.9−6.8BUY THE DIP
RBDe'Von AchaneMIA9.212.6−3.4NOISE
WRMalik NabersNYG28.837.2−8.4BUY THE DIP
QBSam DarnoldSEA140.2159.9−19.7WE WERE EARLY

Our read

SAMPLE VERDICTS
WE WERE EARLY

our board already had him here. The market is catching up to a price we set weeks ago

BUY THE DIP

the room is leaving and we are not. Cheapest he has been all preseason

FADE THE RISE

the room is paying up and our board did not move. Let someone else have him

NOISE

inside the band. Most ADP moves are, and saying so is what makes the other three worth reading

Every verdict says what to do, not whether we agree. We were early is the receipt. Buy the dip and fade the rise are the two live trades, and they are the ones that get graded in public.