BACKTEST
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Draft model backtest, 2021–2025
What the board would have drafted in each of the last five seasons, scored against what those players actually did.
Long-form · one chart per season
NO GRADE — RETROSPECTIVE
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The Record
One page per thing we publish
Three kinds of post, in the order they ship: the backtests first, then the season-long calls before week 1, then the recurring weekly and monthly boards.
01NOW
Backtests
What the models would have done, scored against what happened.
02BEFORE WEEK 1
Bold calls, 2026
Season-long positions, filed with a grade date.
03IN SEASON
Weekly and monthly
The recurring boards, published and then graded.
AllBacktests2026 callsWeeklyMonthlyMethod
BACKTEST
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In-season backtest: weekly and monthly
The same treatment for the two in-season horizons, each against its own consensus benchmark.
Long-form · two horizons side by side
NO GRADE — RETROSPECTIVE
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BACKTEST
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How we grade ourselves
The method post. What counts as a hit, what counts as a miss, and what gets published either way.
Reference · linked from every graded call
NO GRADE — RETROSPECTIVE
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BOLD CALL
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Bold calls for 2026
Season-long positions taken before week 1, each with the date it gets graded.
List · every row accrues a verdict
GRADES JAN 2027
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WEEKLY
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Week 1 board
The weekly ranking, published before kickoff.
Recurring · one per week
GRADES WEEK 2
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MONTHLY
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The four-week outlook
The monthly horizon, which is a different model from the weekly one.
Recurring · one per month
GRADES IN 4 WEEKS
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